IHS predicts 2020 will be a big year for 8K TVs
Recent research from IHS Markit forecasts that the TV market will get back on track and show growth in 2018, as well identifying when 8K adoption is most likely to take off.
Global shipments of TVs will recover following a period of decline in 2017 to grow 3.6% year on year in 2018, with additional 1.4% growth in 2019, according to research provider IHS Markit.
Of the 226 million TVs expected to ship in 2019, over half will be UHD models – the majority of which are 4K. However, 8K TVs from major global TV brands will launch toward the end of 2018, kicking off the “next wave of resolution transition,” according to the report.
2020 to be the year for 8K
IHS forecasts that the 8K TV market will grow from less than 20,000 units in 2018 to more than 430,000 in 2019 – eventually approaching 2 million units by 2020. The researcher pinpoints that all of this growth will be centred on 60-in and larger screen sizes, with 65-in TVs accounting for more than half of the volume.
“Growth in the TV market typically is the result of more attractive retail prices for large-screen sizes and the continued commoditisation of 4K resolution, driving TV replacements and upgrades,” said Paul Gagnon, research and analysis executive director at IHS Markit. “However, this growth through price compression has a negative effect on profits, so TV brands are actively looking for more growth from advanced TV models to improve earnings.”
IHS states that 8K technologies, alongside OLED and quantum dot carry substantial premiums, and even 4K TVs still carry premiums of more than 35% at screen sizes where 1080p resolution is still an option (i.e. 40-in to 49-in TVs).
OLED vs. QLED
OLED TV is expected to grow more than 40% in 2019, rising to 3.6 million units (in line with previous forecasts, as demand is matching production capacity). The size mix still favours 55-in OLED TVs based on current prices, but it will transition to mostly 65-in TVs by 2020 when new production capacity is optimised for larger screen sizes, and when substantial growth is expected in the OLED category (especially with an LG 8K OLED TV launch on the horizon).
The research adds that Quantum dot LCD TV shipments are now forecast to exceed 4 million units in 2019, based on more aggressive pricing and the introduction of “transitional quantum-dot-equipped LCD TV models”.
“The high-end prices of non-QD-equipped LCD TV models and the prices of the low end QD-equipped LCD TV models have moved closer together,” commented Gagnon. “This extension of the quantum dot LCD TV line-up into more moderate price ranges effectively reduces the quantum dot premium to less than 100% at mid-range sizes, opening up the category to a larger addressable market of consumers.”