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Industry Opinion: What is the future of video - Blu-ray, upscaling, streaming, or something else? (1/10/2008)

By Yasmin Hashmi, HiddenWires

Blu-ray has won the battle, but has it won the war? There are those who maintain that the format offers such better quality than standard-definition, even upscaled standard-definition, that it will become the source of choice. But how will this work out for servers? The thought of spending endless hours transferring Blu-ray discs to hard disk is not a great selling point. And what about all of those existing DVD collections? In this greener world, are we supposed to just throw them all away?

Some say that the age of consumable media is over, and that we will end up streaming everything we need - provided the bandwidth is there of course. And some say that 1920 x 1080p is only the beginning.

To get a firmer idea of where the future of video lies, we asked a number of leading lights in the industry where they see the greatest potential for growth in video, and what solutions they think will best match the customer's future needs. Here are their replies:

John Anderson, European Technical Manager, Professional Plasma Business Unit Europe, Panasonic

Trends in video track closely those of the world of computing. Recent advances in the capacity and speed of memory devices mean that the next generation of high-quality video playback and record devices will not use disks at all. The recent International Broadcasting Convention (IBC) in Amsterdam saw a number of technical advances that will impact on customers in the next ten years.

Firstly, the advent of Super Hi-Vision TV. Broadcasters NHK (Japan) in association with the BBC (UK) and Italy's RAI showed a high definition system with 16 times the resolution of current HDTV 1920 x 1080 (note from the Editor - see this month's article on TV Technologies of the Future). To make this system work, a new family of compression systems is required as the MPEG and AVI variants currently used for transmission and playback are not good enough. Developed by the BBC, Dirac uses wavelet compression, long considered the Holy Grail of compression techniques because of its efficiency.

Improved codecs, such as Dirac, also allow the use of IT networks for point-to-point transmission or streaming. With the introduction of the wireless networking standard IEEE 802.11n, and improvements in broadband speeds, the next few years could see us all streaming HDTV at higher resolutions than 1920 x 1080. More importantly, this will be through wired and wireless networks around the home and to the home from the Internet. In some cases a 'store and forward' methodology will be used where programmes and movies are delivered via the Internet to a local network-attached storage (NAS) device and streamed/viewed later anywhere in the home.

In the shorter term, these technologies offer the chance for much improved format conversion (upscaling) from existing standard-definition content, and excellent upscaling from current HD to Super Hi-Vision.

This is all great, but what can we watch these new formats on? A number of display manufacturers have shown higher resolutions screens. Many 4K screens were on show at IBC and a technology demonstration of Panasonic's 4K 150" Plasma display was shown earlier this year at ISE, and more recently at CES and IFA. This leads inexorably on to a discussion about screens sizes, resolutions and technologies, but that is another topic altogether!

Michael Malcolm, Founder, Chairman and CEO, Kaleidescape

The greatest potential for growth in video lies in the upscaling of standard-definition libraries. The latest generation of upscaling players produce stunning video quality from ordinary DVDs to deliver a viewing experience that rivals Blu-ray. Most customers own substantial collections of DVDs, furthermore, new DVD releases continue to offer the greatest selection of movies, episodic television content, self-improvement videos, and documentaries. By upscaling DVD content to high-definition video, consumers can enjoy the highest resolution of today's display devices without the need to repurchase content. Dealers tell us that their customers are voting with their cheque books - when they look at the pros and cons of the situation, it quickly becomes a 'no-brainer' decision.

Charlie Mertz, Business Development Manager, Imerge Ltd

The question on everyone’s lips at the moment is 'Where is video going?’ or rather, 'Where is video going to come from?' Blu-ray may have won the battle with HD-DVD, but it has by no means won the war - the war with online content. There is no question that the quality of picture from Blu-ray is impressive and that the experience surpasses what DVD is capable of, but is it that much better? Dedicated upscaling DVD players get better with every revision of video scaling engine, and with most DVD releases nowadays encoded at fairly high bit rates, the results, when played back on a decent system, can fool even the keenest eye. I’ve seen this happen, and the response, when told that it's standard definition content, is ‘I don’t believe it!’

As long as DVD remains a strong format for mass distribution for the studios, then the dedicated DVD player will remain. Blu-ray of course will gain momentum in the marketplace, as prices eventually come down. But is it the future? I don’t think so. I believe the world is waiting for video to be available at the press of a button. We are seeing the beginning of this with a certain fruity electronics giant, but the quality is poor – despite all the hype. As delivery technology improves and Internet bandwidths increase, then streaming video content will take over. It's just a matter of time.

One thing is for sure, the customer will want access to all media, whatever the original format, wherever they are, whenever they want it. Only the Internet is capable of providing this total service now and in the future. Customers will warm to solutions that take the pain away, enhancing the pleasure aspect. Embracing this future will pay dividends, and resistance is futile!

Khalifa A. A. AlJaziri, Managing Director, e-Home AUTOMATION Group

The future lies in streaming. With so many devices beyond conventional televisions and DVD players now being employed by users, such as Media Centres and game consoles, the idea that video is accessed in one place at one time is increasingly redundant. Users want on-demand video, wherever they are in their property. The same is true for digital online libraries. With so many people using laptops, PDAs and Smartphones, accessing content on the move is increasingly important.

Ewan Smith, Technology Consultant, Intelligent Home Systems

Now the HD-DVD versus Blu-ray battle is over, we can expect an increasing amount of Blu-ray content to hit the shelves (not that our local Tesco store has ANY!), and next year should see a wealth of Blu-ray players available at increasingly affordable prices. Backed by the wealth of HD Ready and 1080p TVs, this will be a match made in heaven, and as we grow more accustomed to viewing HD content, it will become the norm.

Developments in SD upscaling technologies and networking should complement native HD, while HD switching will allow for numerous HD sources to be made available throughout the home and office. Improvements in user interfaces could encourage wider acceptance of upscaling, particularly where streaming or viewing of downloaded content is involved, and applications such as VLC (formerly VideoLAN Client) could become more widespread as broadband content becomes the norm, but our biggest challenge here is in finding an ISP with an infrastructure that supports high-speed download and bandwidth.

A system which best match customer needs will depend on the individual's requirements, but as always, a well thought out structured wiring platform will allow users to implement current technology and embrace future developments without compromise.

David Oldroyd, Chief Executive Officer, Hitachi

High-definition content is now a reality from satellite and cable, and we can look forward to this in the future on terrestrial TV as well. Once you have seen high-definition content, standard definition comes a poor second, and if you can view HD content from your TV programmes, you will also want this from all of your other sources. Upscaling DVDs is fine if you have a big collection of DVDs and don't wish to replace them, but the quality is not in the same league as Blu-ray, so we believe that consumers will purchase new DVDs in Blu-ray format, and gradually replace their favourite DVDs with a Blu-ray version. Look how many of us replaced our record collections with CDs!

Hugo Feugen, President and Founder, CodexNovus

I believe the biggest growth area for video over the next couple of years will be digital multimedia library servers, but largely to satisfy standard-definition video libraries, photo imagery and CD audio libraries.

Blu-ray has gotten a bad word of mouth as a standard that will probably not be long-lived because of its DRM and having to face competition from downloads and server pre-loads.

Streaming video from small office- or home-based servers and DVRs will find increased use. However, streaming video in ever-larger volumes from the Internet will probably stay confined to low-res YouTube-type streams for the foreseeable future because of the load on infrastructure and bandwidth.

In volumes that spur advertising dollars, such streaming has a lot of value, but in commercial video terms, I think customers making their standard-definition video libraries increasingly accessible will be the biggest area of growth, which will encourage more continued growth in the standard-definition video category than it will Blu-ray.

Vincèn Pujol, Technical Manager, DOMEDIA

Currently, dealers have to manage an increasing number of HDMI systems and streaming interfaces, and over the past five years, more A/V systems include some form of networking support. It started with automation systems using networks for links between panels and central controllers, and the control of PCs and projectors via Ethernet.

Streaming systems with central storage such as Kaleidescape, or Max from AMX, are now everyday products, and dealers now have to plan both A/V distribution and network distribution. I think we'll see the use of network wiring with higher bandwidths increasing as traditional analogue cabling decreases, particularly since network interfaces will have to carry HDMI signals over longer distances.

This means that the trend is definitely towards whole network wiring. Companies, such as AMX, that invest in producing streaming interfaces and servers, have already understood the global move towards a network-only mode of operation. Indeed I expect to see an increase in projectors, plasmas and LCDs with built-in streaming interfaces that are able to receive streams from external sources directly.

Jérôme Schonfeld, Managing Director, YBA Design

Let me start by saying that I rule out upscaling. Whatever the process, you will never create the original data that is missing. However, now that the format war is over, how do the the promoters of Blu-ray account for the slow sales of Blu-ray players and discs? A recent study showed that only 9% of US households are considering purchasing a Blu-ray player in the next 24 months - more than three times less than for the introduction of DVD ten years ago. Indeed more than 90% of PS3 owners (thus Blu-ray owners), do not own a single Blu-ray disc!

Why is that? The price of discs and equipment is a certainly a major obstacle to Blu-ray take up, but my feeling is that Blu-ray, as with SACD audio only a few years ago, is 'out of phase' with mainstream needs. SACD was a complete flop, while MP3 downloading from iTunes, not to mention illegal downloads, experienced exponential sales.

People want to enjoy HD video, and if hardware prices fall to today's DVD levels, they may even buy a Blu-ray when their current DVD player is deceased. Given current pricing however, I do not expect to see massive software sales. It is also worth noting that the more DRM, copyrighted, device-dependent you make a product, the less likely you are to succeed.

On the other hand, you can now find high-speed Internet connections almost everywhere in the world. You can find pirated 720p files on the Internet. The first VOD services with HD are there. You can rent or buy the file, play it now or play it later for just a fraction of the cost of a Blu-ray disc. Then transfer it to your iPod and continue to watch while on the train. Why go to a shop and pay US$40 when you can have access to the same quality from the comfort of your couch for less than US$10? So yes, HD video streaming/downloading is definitely the next big thing.

William White, Sales and Marketing Director, HiFi Cinema Ltd

Video has been in the consumer mainstream for decades and there have been a number of innovations over the years that have created sea-changes in the way people view TV and film. There has also been paranoia within the creative industries about piracy and revenue generation from mass marketing, which have led to a number of well-documented difficulties that have caused irritation to consumers. Many of us have experienced the troubles in the early days of DVDs with copy-protected DVDs only playing on certain players, and more recently, incompatibilities with HDCP over HDMI connections.

We are currently at a crossroads in media formats, and there is undoubtedly a huge growth in downloaded content. There is not, however, the Internet bandwidth to support the widespread use of downloaded high-definition video, and a reluctance of governments to free up low-cost terrestrial bandwidth for many HD broadcast channels. This means that the huge growth in high-definition use will remain in the wings for the time-being, perhaps to the top 20% or less of consumers.

The major growth in video viewing will be in downloading low- and standard-definition video (see the growth in YouTube). This will create a problem for ISPs, and bandwidth bottlenecks will continue to proliferate with the ensuing rise in cost of high-bandwidth connections. Downloaded content has a number of advantages which are relevant to modern society, which will continue to ensure its success: time-shift TV, content on demand and content grouped offerings to name a few.

When you add to this the growth of consumer-generated content such as digital photographs, home video etc., it all points to a coming 'Age of the Media Centre'. The technology of the Media Centre still has some way to go, as currently it is only for the technologically savvy. Give it a couple of years for the concepts and solutions to mature however, and the digital age of multimedia content will start to shine, with low-cost, reliable and easy-to-use Media Centres offering content on demand.

A trip to the video rental store for a DVD will be a thing of the past. Only high-definition discs will be rented or sold, where the physical bulk of the data prohibits an easy download. DVDs as we know them will increasingly have to have rich content added where copy protection can be built-in, and having the physical disc has significant advantages over downloading the movie. The key is in cost and ease of use for the consumer.

Yasmin Hashmi is the Editor of HiddenWires magazine.

If you would like to comment on this issue, or to be included in future opinion pieces, please send an email to opinion(AT)hiddenwires.co.uk.