Looking back, looking forward

Michael Heiss looks back on the trends of 2022 and what that will mean for the new year ahead.

As you read this at or around ISE, let’s start by stipulating that it is still the beginning of the year. That means that it is still appropriate to sit back and reflect a bit on the trends and products from the year past and make a prognostication or two about how what happened in 2022 will lead to what we see in 2023 and going forward from that.

A caveat or two before moving forward. First, this is being written in very late December, so while advance previews have made it possible to include some of the things being announced at CES, it is obviously not possible to include everything shown there that you will have heard about by now. However, my crystal ball has recently had a software update and I don’t think that there will be anything that will throw what you read here too far off the rails.

Second, as always, I’m writing this from the perspective of your US correspondent, so some of the items may not appear in the UK/EMEA markets. However, one predication that I can start with is that in 2023 the global economy will become even more inclusive, so other than things that are set by local law and regulation, what appears in one part of the world may well eventually find its way to other markets. Indeed, one of the things to watch looking forward will be how products, services and concepts spread around the world.

As you might expect from me, much of the reflection and prognostication, as always, has a good deal to do with video. In the past year, we saw market introduction of the latest iteration of video display technology: QD-OLED. While many observers have pushed that technology to the top of their rankings, as of the end of 2022, it is only available from Samsung and Sony, only in 55” and 65” screen sizes and still expensive compared to other flat panel display technologies. It’s still going to be a rare bird moving through 2023 although, depending on your region, there may be one or two brands that will introduce it. Surprisingly, at least at this time, despite them being the main OLED panel manufacturer, it won’t be LG.

This dvLED from Quantum Media Systems, shown here with Wisdom speakers on their CEDIA Expo stand, is an example of what we will see going forward in that category

Another well regarded, but really expensive display technology is dvLED (direct view LED), also familiar to many as microLED. It has certainly expanded in the past year in terms of the number of brands offering displays with consumer-centric sets, particularly with the addition of LG and Quantum Media. We’ve also seen more participation in the residential side of the market from the likes of Sony, Planar, Digital Projection and others. Of course, having pioneered residential use of dvLED, Samsung remains the most visible brand in the segment with their The Wall line.

“The most important advancement recently has been the use of mini-LEDs as the backlight solution behind LCD panels in flat panel TVs.”

Given that The Wall was first introduced back in 2018, the concept is not new, but while the model/module variations have expanded, and pixel pitch size has improved, two things are likely to remain illusive for a while. Indeed, they are interrelated. The microLED components are still difficult to produce and yields aren’t as high as the semiconductor people would like. You guessed it, that means it will still be a while until prices for dvLED come down significantly.

Also still a bit out on the horizon are smaller dvLED screen sizes under 100” and down into the 70” range as previewed by Samsung and Sony back at the start of dvLED. That all said, there will be improvements in terms of ease of installation and image quality. Looking forward, dvLED will keep its crown as the royalty of large screen displays in the “I want the best, I want something relatively unique and don’t worry, price is no problem” market segment.

So, where does that leave us mortals? Looking backwards, a great deal has happened that suggests action is destined to continue. The most important advancement recently has been the use of mini-LEDs as the backlight solution behind LCD panels in flat panel TVs. Once the province of higher priced models, it has been moving down the price scale and there is every indication that it will power more sets than ever as we move along.

The benefits? Greater contrast and brighter screens. In addition to larger screen sizes, mini-LED has, and will continue to be, the backlighting system for an increasing number of monitors aimed at the gaming market. That category itself is also something that is growing and should be on your “look forward” list. More about that shortly.

What about that other form of display presentation technology, projection? Two routes have been taken looking back and there doesn’t seem to be too much in the way of change looking forward. Traditional front projection will, as is the case with virtually all technology products, evolve with quality improvements and feature additions, but that’s about it. The real test will be to see how PTV stands up to challenges from large size flat panel displays as they are now in the 90”+ size from a number of brands. For installations with significantly larger screens sizes, the thing to watch is how high-power PTV will fare in the face of the increasing attention to dvLED. That may well be the one to watch.

Epson’s LS800 UST is evidence of the growing take up of Ultra Short Throw (UST) projectors

However, the other side of projection appears to be seeing some growth in terms of number of brands and models available as well as on features and pricing. Of course, that would be Ultra Short Throw projectors (UST). As items such as HDR and connected TV/streaming capability have become much more common for UST, they have become a viable alternative to flat panels, also against the competition from the largest sized flat panels. Looking forward, expect to see a much larger demand for UST, with more available options.

One open question going forward is going to be 8K. Looking back sales have gradually increased, but the amount of 8K native programme content has really not. Don’t get me wrong, 8K does produce amazing image quality regardless of the resolution of the input source, but it still comes at a premium price. The question to look at going forward is if those higher prices will be deemed worth it by consumers.

“Based on a number of reports, it appears that no current 8K display products meet that requirement.”

One other thing to watch going forward about 8K are the pending changes to the EU’s “Energy Efficiency Index” (EEI). Without diving deeply into the math, the EEI sets a March 1, 2023 deadline for compliance that limits the EEI for 8K and dvLED products to consume no more power than a 4K/UHD display. Based on a number of reports, it appears that no current 8K display products meet that requirement. HUH!

If one looks at the letter of the law, or rule/regulation in this case, one might see that sets that do not meet the standard will be banned from sale in the EU. Some reading this may live in countries that are not, or are no longer, part of the EU, so why would those folks worry? It’s a question of production efficiency. When a large market area’s rules set something, it may simply not make sense for manufacturers to still produce products that are compliant in some regions but not others. Look no further than another EU mandate that will require USB-C ports for device charging starting with phones, tablets and cameras before the end of 2024 and laptops some time in 2026. Will Apple then make two versions of the same device? One for the EU and one still with Lightning for the rest of the world? They could, but that just doesn’t make sense from a production and inventory standpoint.

Apply that reasoning here. If 8K sets are not able to be sold in the EU, will that take away enough sales to put the damper on all 8K sets? It is certainly possible that the rules or testing methods may be revised, but this is definitely something to look forward to in the coming years.

Speaking of televisions, another aspect of that category that is on the move is “Connected Television” (CTV). At this point virtually every set above the basic, no-frills models will have some level of broadband connectivity and streaming service access. To date, the captive CTV systems such as Samsung’s Tizen, LG’s WebOS and here in the US, Vizio’s new “WatchFree+” and Amazon’s own Fire TV sets have faced off against sets that use an established third-party OS such as Roku and Android/Google TV.

Looking backward, we have seen both the captive OS systems built into TV sets as well as the OS of the major external brands such as Roku, Fire TV, Apple TV, Google TV, and Nvidia Shield continue to improve their interfaces and to greater or lesser degrees add the new streaming services. However, there is both a look back and look forward side to that.

Looking back, we saw and will continue to see differing schedules to offer new services and apps. Some appear at service launch, some a bit later, and some much later or even not at all. There are many reasons for that, but the bottom line is that it usually revolves around the “business” in “show business”: margin and profit.

LG is manufacturing a 45” OLED monitor for the gaming market that we’ll likely see in a number of products this year. (Source: LG Display)

That isn’t going to change in the year ahead, particularly as subscriber churn continues along with price increases, the addition of ad-supported versions of formerly subscription-only services, and the mergers and consolidation of the streaming services.

Looking forward, there are some things that seem likely, if not certain. First, given the things just stated, no matter how good a built-in interface and app selection is, many will still want, if not need, one or even two external streaming devices. One reason is to make certain that you are able to bring in any streaming service desired. Here in Los Angeles, the app for my cable system is not on Google or Fire TV-based TVs, so a Roku or Apple TV is necessary. In addition, when newer apps or the UI/UX of an existing app requires processing power beyond what a CTV has, an external streamer is required.

Bottom line, despite the growth of native CTVs and improvements in their offerings, you will often still need an external streamer.

One more consideration. Up until now, Samsung and LG have only offered their Tizen and WebOS CTV schemes in their own branded sets. On the other hand, Roku has only been built into sets branded and sold by others. That is going to change this year as the proprietary OS systems will be marketed to other brands. On the other hand, Roku announced at CES that they will offer their own branded TVs, albeit first in the US only. Straddling the fence, TiVO, well known in the US for their DVRs, but who also supplies background data and the systems that power many set top boxes, will be offering a “white label” version of their CTV OS. The sets will not carry the TiVO brand, but they will accelerate development by the selling brands. Unlike Roku, we’ll see this first in brands sold in the EMEA/UK markets.

From both a technical and business standpoint, CTV and the services it brings to the viewer will be a hot topic looking forward and it is an area you’ll need to keep a close watch on.

As space is running short, a few quick takes to give you some things to put on your forward looking radar. In the smart home area, look for more devices compatible with Matter. With Google, Apple and Amazon in rare agreement to support a command and connectivity standard, the name will hold true. Amazon has already added Matter compliance to some of their existing devices, and other brands will both follow where possible and will definitely make this a feature you’ll see everywhere. The name is a good one. This one WILL “Matter”!

Before leaving the topic of video, looking back we saw an increasing number of new monitors aimed primarily at gamers. They are larger, often curved, increasingly with mini-LED backlighting, and the upper limit for frame rates is on the rise. Yet, while they are monitors as opposed to TV sets given that they do not have off-air tuners, some of the game-centric monitors have consumer TV-like functionality. More HDMI inputs, better sound, remotes and HDR.

This is not a fad. Looking forward, expect to see more of these products. Looking over from the other side of the fence, we have seen game-centric features such as high frame rates, VRR, G-Sync, FreeSync and more become a selling point for mainstream TVs. This crossover with each segment adapting features from the other is definitely going to continue.

On the connectivity side, Wi-Fi 6E is becoming more prevalent and is something that will spread into more access point products on both the enterprise/commercial/high-end residential sides as well as on the more consumer/DIY segment. Equally important, expect to see more end-user devices such as phones, tablets and smart home devices equipped with Wi-Fi 6E so that the investment you provide on the access side is not wasted on the end user devices.

Tying that together from a connectivity standpoint, 5G has and will continue to spread. Linking it to Wi-Fi, remember the acronym “FWA”, which stands for Fixed Wireless Access. That is the use of cellular technology, particularly 5G C-Band and Ultrawide Band, to deliver high speed broadband to the home where cable or fibre are not available. 5G FWA brings the data in and Wi-Fi 6E will spread it around.

The increased availability of true high-speed broadband distributed to and around the home will continue to influence the Work From Home (WFH) segment. Yes, many of us are returning to the office, but WFH is a genie that will not be squeezed back into the bottle. Looking forward, expect to see increased demand for webcams, headsets, mics and larger monitors.

Aver Media’s PW313 webcam has two cameras and is representative of what users will demand as WFH has to rise to the standards of “return to office”. Showing two live pictures is part of that

During pandemic times we were happy to get what we could and were satisfied with what was available. Looking forward, now that supply chain issues have eased a bit and we will be facing the quality of in person meetings, “good enough” will no longer do. There are many more 1080p and 4K webcams, the quality and diversity of ear buds, on ear and over ear headsets and mics have greatly improved. Don’t be misled by offices opening up. First, WFH is something that isn’t going away. Perhaps more interesting, it has also upped the game for in-office virtual meetings, conference room setups and “huddle rooms”. Ignoring WFH and the broader category of virtual meetings will leave money on the table.

Finally, putting all of these areas together, looking backwards we’ve seen too many incidents where systems have been hacked and data breached. Some of that is best left to the IT specialists. However, when it comes to video conferencing, Wi-Fi and any connected device, whether it is a security camera, video doorbell, baby monitor or any type of controller or sensor, security will increasingly become a hot topic. The full story on that is, itself, a topic for an article all to its own. However, here I’ll twist the “looking” theme around. You need to look carefully at who may be “looking” at the devices you provision.

Those are just a few views to take stock of what we’ve been looking back at and projecting that against what to look at and for going forward. Perhaps the best advice at what is still the early part of the year is to make this same “look backward/look forward” view of your own marketplace, customer and prospect base and then hold that up to the light against where that stands for your business. That’s the best way to look towards charting a great view of and route to the future.

Main image: LG’s Magnit shows how the major TV brands are looking to expand the dvLED market




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